The Football Meets Data platform analysed the odds of qualifying the 36 teams participating in the next Champions League, which is scheduled to kick off in two weeks. This edition 2025-2026 will retain the same format as the previous season, with the Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) seeking to retain its title and the Olympique de Marseille (OM) seeking a return to the most prestigious European competition. AS Monaco, for its part, aims to improve its performance compared to last season.

The statistical analysis of Football Meets Data reveals variable opportunities for French clubs. The PSG has 43% probability of ranking in the top 8 and 92% chance of joining the top 24. The draw in the Champions League was not particularly favourable to the PSG. AS Monaco has a 13% probability of being in the top 8 and 68% of the top 24. The Olympique de Marseille, although having a calendar deemed more accessible, has only 6% chance to qualify in the top 8 and 49% chance of joining the top 24.

Despite a potentially easier timetable, statistics do not seem to support OM’s ambitions. The study by Football Meets Data highlights the difficulty for OM to outperform and rise to the top European teams. This analysis highlights the importance of drawing lots and past performances in the competition, even with a favourable schedule. For more details on the OM course in the Champions League, you can consult the complete calendar available.