Despite a precious victory over Lyon (2-1), AS Saint-Étienne remains in great danger of relegation. With 27 points to four days at the end of the championship, the Greens have only 17% chance of escaping a barrage or relegated position according to the latest statistical calculations. Currently, ASSE is in 17th place ex æquo with Le Havre (16th), but behind in terms of difference of goals (-4). To hope to save themselves directly, the Greens will have to reach at least 31 points, the threshold estimated for a 15th place this season. This means that they will have to take at least 4 points over the next 6 days, a goal that is achievable but far from being won. The statistics give Saint-Étienne 48% chance to finish relegated directly (17th or 18th) and 35% chance to fight the dam by finishing 16th. This leaves only 17% probability of direct retention in League 1. If direct retention remains possible, the most likely scenario currently remains a 16th place, synonymous with a relegation dam against a Ligue 2 club. This outcome would represent a final stay but also an additional danger for the ASSE, which already experienced this tension in 2022 and whose memory of a failed hold against Auxerre is still alive among the supporters. Future confrontations will therefore be crucial, with each point counting double. The good news is that relegation is not a fatality. The ASSE remains on a positive dynamic with 4 points taken from the last two games and a group that seems to have found a new breath, notably thanks to key players like Lucas Stassin in full shape. The club will have to maintain this state of mind and grapple points against opponents often better ranked to hope to escape. The remaining calendar will be decisive and a new win in the next matches could change the odds. Source: Fabien Torre